Coronavirus spread (England) in school age children (5-14) Autumn 2021 term
School Age Children (5-14): 6,975,132 • Total Confirmed Cases (August): 90,525 • Daily Confirmed Cases (August Average): 2,920 • Autumn Term Confirmed Cases: 2,226,356 • Average Daily Autumn Term Confirmed Cases: 6,567 • Change in Daily Confirmed Cases (August to Autumn Term): 3,647
England: Autumn Term (01/09/2021 to 05/08/2022) children 5-14 years old
which is 31.92% of all children in the age range.
which is 127.67% of children in the age range.
of the 8,905,424 Total Infections, 55.53%
4,945,332 children infected in school
Projected figures, totals to half term (01/09/2021 to 23/10/2021)
Projected Total Infections:
which is 19.96% of all children in the age range.
Analysis of available data based on current mitigation measures in schools indicates that of the 1,392,204 Projected Total Infections:
773,114 5 to 14 year olds will have been infected with COVID-19 in school by half term (23/10/2021)
Notes: Figures shown relate to children aged 5-14 only, teachers and other school staff testing positive for COVID-19 are not reported. School children aged 4, 15 and 16 testing positive for COVID-19 are also not reported in figures above, as these ages are outside of the standard age range groups reported in Government figures.
As the age range reported covers just 10 years from age 5 to 14 - any spread of infection from children to adults (such as parents and grandparents) resulting from school based outbreaks will are not shown in this report.
In England, children attend primary and secondary schools between 4 and 16 years old, if we were to include all school age children (adding 1/5 of cases seen in the 5-9 age group to represent 4 year olds and adding 2/5 of cases seen in the 10-14 age group to represent 15 and 16 year olds) the total in-school infection count for Autumn Term to 23/10/2021 would be:
England: Projected Total In-School
Infections (4 to 16 year old children)
Related Data: Attendance in education and early years settings during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
 Source: Number of children in England aged 5 to 14 based on ONS Population estimates mid-2020
 Source: August 2021: Number of confirmed postive COVID-19 cases in the 5-14 year old age group based on England New Cases By Specimin Date Age Demographics available from the GOV.UK Coronavirus Dashboard
 Calculation: August 2021 Average: Average number of confirmed postive COVID-19 cases each day in the 5-14 year old age group. Working:  / Days in August » 90525 / 31 = 2,920 (rounded to nearest whole number)
 Source: 01/09/2021 to 05/08/2022: Number of confirmed postive COVID-19 cases in the 5-14 year old age group based on England New Cases By Specimin Date Age Demographics available from the GOV.UK Coronavirus Dashboard
 Calculation: 01/09/2021 to 05/08/2022 Average: Average number of confirmed postive COVID-19 cases each day in the 5-14 year old age group. Working:  / Days since 01/09/2021 » 2226356 / 339 = 6,567 (rounded to nearest whole number)
 Calculation: Change in Average Daily Confirmed Cases: Difference between Average Daily Cases in August and Average Daily Cases for Autumn Term to date (01/09/2021 to 05/08/2022). Working:  -  » 6567 - 2920 = 3,647
 Data Limitation: Government data is only made public 6 days in arrears, latest data includes cases reported up to 05/08/2022. This delay in data reporting severely limits our ability to provide a picture of the current situation and report on real time trends that could identify schools or locations where extra measures are needed to limit outbreaks.
 Calculation: Total Infections: The actual number of cases would be expected to be 3 to 5 times higher than the number of cases confirmed by testing. Many children with asymptomatic infections and those who choose not to take a test would not be counted in official figures. This report is based on an estimate that 3 in 4 COVID-19 infections in children are not recorded in government data. This assumption is in line with current Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID-19 infection estimates used in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey reports.
 Calculation: Infections occuring in-school: We estimate the percentage of Total Infections based on the increase in average daily cases from August (pre return to school) when compared with Term 1 dates. Using the level of change as children returned to classrooms as the basis of the transmission within schools modeling. It is not perfect but the Goverment do not share any relevant data to allow high confidence modeling. It is likely that simply discounting the previous months infections as not occuring in school will lead to an under estimate, as there is less time for activities outside of school (for children) after August, but other factors such as parents returning to the office could also lead to infections of 5-14 year olds at home, factors such as this should restore balance and result in an acceptable level of accuracy. Working:  x Autumn Term to date (01/09/2021 to 05/08/2022) days x 4 (See  actual cases adjustment factor) » (3647 x 339) x 4 = 4,945,332.
 Calculation: Projected Total Infections: See  for details in relation to estimating actual case count based on confirmed case figures. Working:  x Days in Term 1 (01/09/2021 to 23/10/2021) » 6567 / 53 = 1,392,204. We use the simple flat figure of average daily cases multiplied by days, understanding that the period will likely see infection growth, peak and decline. It is estimated that this will result in an actual number similar to the flat rate projection.